Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 2.334939 2.481156 2.636119 2.813316 3.011256 3.226650 3.480250
2025-05-11 2.107895 2.305157 2.524762 2.789884 3.104790 3.471513 3.938043
2025-05-18 1.962467 2.187534 2.446579 2.771461 3.175034 3.670004 4.340207
2025-05-25 1.849660 2.091727 2.377519 2.746808 3.222452 3.831654 4.702756
2025-06-01 1.757706 2.011047 2.316430 2.720981 3.258414 3.973533 5.048419
2025-06-08 1.692798 1.957360 2.282388 2.723064 3.325981 4.158755 5.475556
2025-06-15 1.647980 1.924727 2.270956 2.751081 3.427467 4.398011 6.017378
2025-06-22 1.580190 1.858574 2.211348 2.708519 3.424031 4.480390 6.317793
2025-06-29 1.517760 1.795949 2.152401 2.661890 3.409118 4.541044 6.587462
2025-07-06 1.455685 1.730886 2.086681 2.601122 3.367494 4.553799 6.771262
2025-07-13 1.433478 1.717002 2.088561 2.635346 3.469902 4.806753 7.445576
2025-07-20 1.417079 1.709745 2.098519 2.680939 3.592385 5.106197 8.279064
2025-07-27 1.398926 1.699815 2.104843 2.722440 3.713616 5.422683 9.245095
2025-08-03 1.361757 1.662441 2.070791 2.700931 3.729866 5.551237 9.822422
2025-08-10 1.328442 1.629053 2.040780 2.683505 3.750876 5.690354 10.466086
2025-08-17 1.295534 1.595013 2.008291 2.660138 3.759360 5.805459 11.083904
2025-08-24 1.264329 1.562279 1.976313 2.635649 3.763591 5.912019 11.714849
2025-08-31 1.242531 1.542011 1.961635 2.637624 3.814434 6.120692 12.728255
2025-09-07 1.228780 1.532593 1.962395 2.664190 3.911487 6.441723 14.255225
2025-09-14 1.197733 1.497493 1.923546 2.623830 3.881266 6.476826 14.813657
2025-09-21 1.167152 1.462281 1.883427 2.579588 3.840751 6.483922 15.279060
2025-09-28 1.134406 1.423185 1.836354 2.521891 3.771133 6.416113 15.432419
2025-10-05 1.126375 1.419626 1.842952 2.554392 3.877397 6.780330 17.587051